All the talk these days is about high gas prices, from the nightly news to the syndicated blogs and newspapers. Everyone is wondering where the top is. In the theme park industry, people are beginning to wonder what effect, if any, these high gas prices will have on attendance and spending at the parks.

The low-hanging fruit is to seize on the obvious: with people spending so much money on gas if they are driving, or airfare (now with baggage fees, too!) if they are flying, it seems obvious that some spending will be cut back, at a minimum. If they come to the parks, they'll spend less money when they are here. That does not bode well for Universal and Busch, particularly given Disney's recent success in keeping folks right at WDW (due to Destination Disney, the program that folds Magic Your Way tickets, the Disney's Magical Express busses, and similar programs, all designed to keep you virtually hostage).

Others may opt not to take that big vacation this year. Wait it out a year, and maybe prices will return to sanity, some are thinking. Or at least we could save for an extra year. If this kind of thinking becomes a trend, Walt Disney World could be in for some serious drops in attendance. So far, that hasn't happened. But clearly there's a point at which it will.

Remember, a few months ago in this space we discussed that Disney has a radical contingency plan in case oil reaches $160/barrel (presumably, a sustained price that high), at which point the outside accountants hired to do the study suggested Disney should sell the parks and just make money off royalties. Ouch. That study implies people really will stop coming if gasoline and jet fuel prices (and thus airfare) really do keep climbing. Surely there's a magical point somewhere.

As a local, my first thought was that this might mean dramatically emptied walkways in WDW. Could all this work to my benefit as a nearby resident? But that prompted another thought. If prices get so bad that few people take vacations, that means few Floridians will take vacations too. They'll just stick around and do what's local. And for the millions of Floridians, WDW is local. Hm. Maybe the Food and Wine festival in October won't be so empty after all.

Doing the local attraction is a logical choice, so it makes sense that local park operators around the country (Six Flags, Paramount Parks) might see a sudden focus on regional entertainment working to their benefit.

A-ha, cries a voice from the peanut gallery, the WDW parks will never be that empty. If the American tourists won't travel because of high prices, then the international tourists will. They don't have the problem of a weak currency (the dollar has fallen quite a bit compared to other world currencies, which is part of the reason prices are going haywire in the USA lately). For these internationals, WDW is on sale. They'll be here in droves!

Solidly and logically argued. For now, it's probably true. But then THAT thought leads to yet another one. If WDW is dependent on the international crowd (Disneyland from day one has been more of a regional park, since California has such enormous population density), then what's the one thing you worry about? It's that the international tourists could find something better. And uh-oh, don't look now, but it could very well be there is something better on the horizon.

Duabiland will be mind-bogglingly big. Ginormous. Art © Dubailand

I'm talking about Dubailand. Located in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a collection of seven states, this mega-complex is meant to be nothing less than a playground for the entire world, the ultimate enticement for tourists. Dubai is one of the seven UAE states (and it's also the name of the city), and this oil-rich country is benefiting enormously from the run up in oil prices.

But there are some savvy folks over there. They recognize that the post-oil world is coming, sooner rather than later, and they aren't waiting around for their fortunes to turn. They've already transformed Dubai into a regional powerhouse for finance, and with Dubailand intend to make a bid for international tourism, writ very large, as their source of income once the oil stops flowing in a few decades. Smart.

They are making offers to theme park operators, hotels, restaurants, and all manner of hospitality and leisure companies that are hard to refuse. They want top-notch and variety here, and so far, they are getting it. Disney hasn't signed on to come to Dubailand, but if you don't already know the roster, brace yourself. Just about everyone else is coming.

The master plan detailed. Art © Dubailand

Dubailand is to be a series of theme parks, shopping malls, and entertainment zones that will be three billion square feet – more than twice the size of Walt Disney World's property (and assuredly with less of the area intentionally left undeveloped). It's to be built in four phases, with the first phase opening this year and the last by 2018 or so.

The scale is breathtaking. There are to be seven smaller theme parks (each about the size of one of Disneyland's lands) and at least four full size theme parks that are larger than Disneyland. As you look at the lineup listed below, remember that Disneyland's 80 acres translates to about 3.5 million square feet:

Smaller parks:

Concept art for Theme Park City (top), Great Dubai Wheel and Sports City.
Art © Dubailand

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© 2008 Kevin Yee